Junipero Serra
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 104
Woodbine · Race 10 - Niagara Stakes · 1m 3f
#3
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 3rd | +4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 3rd | +4 |
| 2025-10-25 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 13/09/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 04/10/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 25/10/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 28/02/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 28/03/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |