Roscar
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 104
Woodbine · Race 10 - Niagara Stakes · 1m 3f
#9
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 4th | +4 |
| 2025-09-06 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 0th | +4 |
| 2025-08-02 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-12 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-06-23 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/11/2024 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 07/12/2024 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |
| 10/05/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 23/06/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 12/07/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 02/08/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 06/09/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 04/10/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 04/07/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 13% | -0.53 |