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7

Sultana

5yo Mare · 8-6 · OR 109

Woodbine · Race 10 - Niagara Stakes · 1m 3f

#5

Rank

Odds

7/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength66%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 1.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.0
Today:
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Woodbine 31/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 1m110y Fas 12431/05C6C6 @ Woodbine 12/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 99 · 1m110y 124 · below its mark12/07/2025 · OR 99 par12/07C6OR 99C6 @ Woodbine 23/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 96 · 1m110y Fas 122 · below its mark23/08/2025 · OR 96 par23/08C6OR 96C6 @ Woodbine 14/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 94 · 1m110y Fm 122 · beat its mark14/09/2025 · OR 94 par14/09C6OR 94C1 @ Woodbine 08/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 96 · 1m2f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 96 par8/11C1OR 96C1 @ Gulfstream 28/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 101 · 1m4f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 101 par28/03C1OR 101C0 @ Woodbine 19/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 104 · 1m Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 104 par19/07C?OR 104projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-19Woodbine?3rd-2th+4
2026-03-28Gulfstream?1st-4th+4
2025-11-08Woodbine?1st-4th+4
2025-09-14Woodbine?1st2nd−1
2025-08-23Woodbine?2nd3rd−1
2025-07-12Woodbine?3rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0514/0919/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/05/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
12/07/20253rd11/1094%71%-0.23
23/08/20252nd8/1196%80%-0.16
14/09/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
08/11/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
28/03/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
19/07/20263rd7/491%60%-0.31