8
Summer Cause
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 114
Woodbine · Race 10 - Niagara Stakes · 1m 3f
#12
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | -1th | +4 |
| 2025-10-18 | Far Hills | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-30 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-06-28 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-04-11 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 12
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength42%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/2024 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 12/12/2024 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 07/02/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 11/04/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 28/06/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 30/07/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 13/09/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 18/10/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 70% | -0.01 |
| 24/01/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.46 |