11
Twowaycrossing
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 100
Woodbine · Race 10 - Niagara Stakes · 1m 3f
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength30%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-01 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-08-02 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-07-12 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-06-22 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength46%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 20/04/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 31/05/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 22/06/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 12/07/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 02/08/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 01/09/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/09/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |