12
Watsonville Red
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 100
Woodbine · Race 10 - Niagara Stakes · 1m 3f
#10
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-15 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-09-28 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength34%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 20/07/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 16/08/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 28/09/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 15/11/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 13/12/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |