3
Mrs. Hot Shot
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 79
Woodbine · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength91%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 07/11/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 23/11/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 28/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 08/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 05/07/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |