Pickford Sweet
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 80
Woodbine · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-11-28 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-23 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 05/09/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 25/09/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 23/11/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 28/11/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 31/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 21/06/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |