Bitter Bullet

2yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 74

Woodbine · Race 3 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

99%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength33%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +0.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-18	Woodbine	?	5th	4th	+1	5.6
2026-06-13	Woodbine	?	2nd	1st	+1	8.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 7

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength14%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
13/06/2026	2nd	7/2	82%	80%	-0.02
18/07/2026	5th	5/1	74%	43%	-0.31