4
Bullet Journal
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 83
Woodbine · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
10/11
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-02-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-01-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength74%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 26/02/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |
| 12/04/2026 | 10th | 5/1 | 74% | 18% | -0.56 |
| 12/06/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |