Mathematical
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 78
Woodbine · Race 7 - Optional Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-05-16 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-11-22 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-10-12 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 26/07/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/08/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 12/10/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 22/11/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |