4
Vegas Road
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 81
Woodbine · Race 7 - Optional Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-05-09 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength56%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/03/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 19/04/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |