3
Fleury
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 73
Woodbine · Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-11-15 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-24 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-08-02 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 17% | -0.71 |
| 24/08/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 15/11/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 29/11/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 23/05/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |