1
Piper's Gift
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 95
Woodbine · Race 9 - Bison City Stakes · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Woodbine | BHA96 | 5th | 11th | −5 |
| 2026-06-06 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-12 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength54%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 89% | -0.01 |
| 16/08/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 20/09/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 12/10/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 29/11/2025 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 19/07/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |