3
Brun De Tzar
4yo Gelding · 11-0
Angers · Prix Andre Adele Hurdle · 2m 198y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲6
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -6.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Senonnes-Pouance | A Duvacher | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
| 2025-12-29 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | B Gelhay | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-15 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | B Gelhay | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-01 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | A Zuliani | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 58/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/12/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 62% | -0.12 |
| 15/12/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 29/12/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 19/09/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |