IvyArcIvyArc
  1. home
  2. keeneland
  3. race-12

22:16 · Keeneland

Race 12 - Longines Breeders' Cup Classic - Grade 1

1m 2f3YO plusDIRT8 runners
Ordered by projected finish
2
Top Pick
OR 116
5/2
Sovereignty silks

Godolphin, Llc

Sovereignty

4yo Colt · 9-0 · Draw 2

Into Mischief - Crowned (Bernardini)

Junior Alvarado10%7/11William Mott60%Synergy 25
111231
8.0
Going 100Course 0

2025 Kentucky Derby and Belmont hero, but then missed his assignment in this last year due to a setback. Has only made the track on 3 occasions this year, looking back to best when winning the Whitney at Saratoga in August. Missed recent prep in Jockey Club Gold Cup but class is there.

Class Advantage

7/06 · C0 · finish vs mark above7/06 · mark par7/0626/07 · C0 · finish vs mark above26/07 · mark par23/08 · C0 · finish vs mark above23/08 · mark par18/04 · C2 · finish vs mark n/a27/06 · C0 · finish vs mark below27/06 · mark par8/08 · C0 · finish vs mark above8/08 · mark par8/08projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going · 100Course · 0Dist: 1m 2f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%7/06Pos 1 · SP 4/9 | Expected: 98%Pos 1 · SP 4/9 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 1/4 | Expected: 99%Pos 1 · SP 1/4 | Actual: 100%23/08Pos 2 · SP 4/5 | Expected: 96%Pos 2 · SP 4/5 | Actual: 80%Pos 3 · SP 4/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 3 · SP 4/6 | Actual: 50%27/06Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%8/08
Projected finish1st of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength67%
ExpectedActualTrend
100%2-572/100
7
OR 113
9/2
Knightsbridge silks

Godolphin, Llc

Knightsbridge

5yo Horse · 9-0 · Draw 7

Nyquist - Tyburn Brook (Bernardini)

Luis Saez20%William Mott60%Synergy 47
116211
8.0
Going 83Course 0

Typically for one from this stable, has been allowed plenty of time to climb the ranks, winning 4 of his 6 starts this year. Tried his hand at this trip for the first time when routing the field in Pacific Classic at Del Mar by 6¼ lengths from Original Sin in August.

Class Advantage

24/01 · C1 · finish vs mark above24/01 · mark par24/0128/02 · C1 · finish vs mark above28/02 · mark par2/05 · C0 · finish vs mark above2/05 · mark par6/06 · C1 · finish vs mark n/a18/07 · C1 · finish vs mark above18/07 · mark par23/08 · C0 · finish vs mark above23/08 · mark par23/08projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going · 83Course · 0Dist: 1m 2f · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 1/1 | Expected: 95%Pos 1 · SP 1/1 | Actual: 100%24/01Pos 1 · SP 1/6 | Expected: 99%Pos 1 · SP 1/6 | Actual: 100%Pos 6 · SP 5/4 | Expected: 93%Pos 6 · SP 5/4 | Actual: 50%2/05Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 83%Pos 1 · SP 5/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 5/6 | Actual: 100%18/07Pos 1 · SP 10/11 | Expected: 95%Pos 1 · SP 10/11 | Actual: 100%23/08
Projected finish2nd of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength76%
ExpectedActualTrend
86%1-472/100
5
Market Fav
OR 121
2/1
Forever Young silks

Susumu Fujita

Forever Young

5yo Horse · 9-0 · Draw 5

Real Steel - Forever Darling (Congrats)

Ryusei Sakai10%3/7Yoshito Yahagi60%Synergy 60
311121
9.0
Going 0Course 0

Reigning champ has proven himself a versatile, high-class horse. Won the Saudi Cup for the second time earlier this year before finishing runner-up in the Dubai World Cup. Shipped back to the US to score in the 4-runner Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont in September and looks sure to go well again.

Class Advantage

4/05 · C0 · finish vs mark above4/05 · mark par4/052/11 · C0 · finish vs mark above2/11 · mark par5/04 · C0 · finish vs mark above5/04 · mark par1/11 · C0 · finish vs mark above1/11 · mark par28/03 · C0 · finish vs mark above28/03 · mark par18/09 · C0 · finish vs mark above18/09 · mark par18/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going · 0Course · 0Dist: 1m 2f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 89%4/05Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 85%Pos 3 · SP 4/9 | Expected: 98%Pos 3 · SP 4/9 | Actual: 80%5/04Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 2 · SP 8/11 | Expected: 96%Pos 2 · SP 8/11 | Actual: 88%28/03Pos 1 · SP 1/2 | Expected: 97%Pos 1 · SP 1/2 | Actual: 100%18/09
Projected finish3rd of 8
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength85%
ExpectedActualTrend
71%1-376/100
3
OR 109
5/1
Golden Tempo silks

Phipps Stable And St Elias Stable

Golden Tempo

3yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 3

Curlin - Carrumba (Bernardini)

Jose Ortiz10%4/7Cherie Devaux60%Synergy 50
133113
7.0
Going 100Course 0

Very smart colt who followed in Sovereignty's footsteps from last year by winning the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs and Belmont at Saratoga. Only third in the Travers at Saratoga in August but Ortiz prefers him to Magnitude and he should get a good pace to aim at.

Class Advantage

18/01 · C1 · finish vs mark above18/01 · mark par18/0114/02 · C0 · finish vs mark above14/02 · mark par21/03 · C0 · finish vs mark above21/03 · mark par2/05 · C0 · finish vs mark above2/05 · mark par6/06 · C0 · finish vs mark above6/06 · mark par29/08 · C0 · finish vs mark above29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going · 100Course · 0Dist: 1m 2f · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%18/01Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 71%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 75%21/03Pos 1 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 1 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 1 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 100%6/06Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 78%29/08
Projected finish4th of 8
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
57%1-470/100
6
OR 111
6/1
Magnitude silks

Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC

Magnitude

4yo Colt · 9-0 · Draw 6

Not This Time - Rockadelic (Bernardini)

Flavien Prat20%Steven Asmussen60%Synergy 71
211116
6.0
Going 72Course 0

NON RUNNER.

Class Advantage

23/08 · C0 · finish vs mark above23/08 · mark par23/0828/11 · C0 · finish vs mark above28/11 · mark par28/02 · C3 · finish vs mark n/a28/03 · C0 · finish vs mark above28/03 · mark par27/06 · C0 · finish vs mark above27/06 · mark par8/08 · C0 · finish vs mark below8/08 · mark par8/08projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength26%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going · 72Course · 0Dist: 1m 2f · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 50%23/08Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 4/5 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 4/5 | Actual: 100%28/02Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 100%27/06Pos 6 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 6 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 17%8/08
Projected finish5th of 8
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength51%
ExpectedActualTrend
43%1-832/100
4
OR 110
10/1
The Puma silks

Ogma Investments Llc, Al Otaibi, Saleh, Tcc Stables Llc, Yng Stables Llc, High Step Racing And Jr Ranch

The Puma

3yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 4

Essential Quality - Eve Of War (Declaration Of War)

Javier Castellano10%1/4Gustavo DelgadoSynergy 36
312441
6.0
Going 100Course 0

Only started racing this season, breaking his duck in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby in March. Good second in Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park next time but then missed the Triple Crown races. Fitted with blinkers when successful in Pennsylvania Derby at Parx in September. Has work to do.

Class Advantage

10/01 · C6 · finish vs mark n/a10/017/02 · C5 · finish vs mark below7/02 · mark par7/03 · C1 · finish vs mark above7/03 · mark par28/03 · C0 · finish vs mark above28/03 · mark par18/07 · C0 · finish vs mark above18/07 · mark par29/08 · C0 · finish vs mark above29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength16%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going · 100Course · 0Dist: 1m 2f · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 86%10/01Pos 3 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 75%Pos 1 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 1 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 100%7/03Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 80%Pos 4 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 50%18/07Pos 4 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 4 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 67%29/08
Projected finish6th of 8
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength53%
ExpectedActualTrend
29%2-753/100
8
OR 108
15/1
Napoleon Solo silks

Espoir Usa, Inc

Napoleon Solo

3yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 8

Liam's Map - Atomic Blonde (Scat Daddy)

John Velazquez10%0/1Chad Summers60%Synergy 32
155122
7.0
Going 100Course 0

Juvenile Grade 1 winner who was also successful in the Preakness at Laurel in May. Not beaten far in second in Haskell at Monmouth and Travers at Saratoga since. Likely to contest the lead.

Class Advantage

4/10 · C0 · finish vs mark above4/10 · mark par4/1028/02 · C0 · finish vs mark above28/02 · mark par4/04 · C0 · finish vs mark above4/04 · mark par16/05 · C0 · finish vs mark above16/05 · mark par18/07 · C0 · finish vs mark above18/07 · mark par29/08 · C0 · finish vs mark above29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going · 100Course · 0Dist: 1m 2f · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 100%4/10Pos 5 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 5 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 50%Pos 5 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 5 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 64%4/04Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 83%18/07Pos 2 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 2 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 89%29/08
Projected finish7th of 8
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength32%
ExpectedActualTrend
14%3-854/100
1
OR 107
30/1
T O Password silks

Tomoya Ozasa

T O Password

5yo Horse · 9-0 · Draw 1

Copano Rickey - T O Rachel (King Kamehameha)

Kazushi Kimura20%0/1D TakayanagiSynergy 70
760213
2.0
Going 0Course 0

Fifth on previous US outing in the 2024 Kentucky Derby, with Forever Young third. Has stayed in Japan since, winning non-graded stakes at Tokyo back in May before finishing third in a Sapporo Group 3 in August. Hard to fancy in this company.

Class Advantage

4/05 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a4/05
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength3%
Finish Dot = grade
Going · 0Course · 0Dist: 1m 2f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 79%4/05
Projected finish8th of 8
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength39%
ExpectedActualTrend
0%3-850/100