16:10 · Ayr

Hogmanay Ball At Western House Hotel Handicap Hurdle

3m 70yGoing TBCClass 54YO plusTURFHandicap12 runners
Ordered by projected finish
1
Market FavTop Pick
OR 95
9/4
Bollin Matilda silks

Callum Whillans

8yo Mare · 12-0

Yorgunnabelucky - Bollin Julie (Bollin Eric)

Murray Dodd10%2/3−5lbD W WhillansSynergy 35
342212
8.0
Going 0Course 67

Is consistent as they come at this level and she gained due reward when resuming winning ways at Musselburgh (3m) in March. Found only one far less exposed too good at Perth (3m) a month later and she merits consideration for all this is her first start for 6 months.

Class Advantage

22/12 · C5 · finish vs mark above22/12 · mark par22/1222/01 · C5 · finish vs mark below22/01 · mark par15/02 · C5 · finish vs mark above15/02 · mark par7/03 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above7/03 · mark par20/03 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/03 · mark par22/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above22/04 · mark par22/04projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength67%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going · 0Course · 67Dist: 3m 70y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 3 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 83%22/12Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 50%Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 80%15/02Pos 2 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 2 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 67%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 100%20/03Pos 2 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 2 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 89%22/04
Projected finish1st of 12
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength84%
ExpectedActualTrend
100%1-669/100
4
OR 92
8/1
Maura Jeanne silks

Mr I A Duncan

9yo Mare · 11-11

Sulamani - Watch Closely Now (Winged Love)

Jack Power10%−5lbI A Duncan60%Synergy 29
625265
5.0
Going 0Course 89
Cheek piecesTongue strap

C&D winner during early 2025 who finished runner-up 3 times last season, latterly at Carlisle (25f) in April. Disappointed next time but shaped as if back in form when fifth at Perth (27f) when last seen in May. This track lends itself more to her style of racing and assessor has given her a chance.

Class Advantage

30/12 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below30/12 · mark par30/1213/01 · C5 · finish vs mark above13/01 · mark par16/02 · C5 · finish vs mark below16/02 · mark par4/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above4/04 · mark par22/04 · C5 · finish vs mark below22/04 · mark par13/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below13/05 · mark par13/05projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength34%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going · 0Course · 89Dist: 3m 70y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 17%30/12Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 89%Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 50%16/02Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 89%Pos 6 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 6 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 44%22/04Pos 5 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 60%13/05
Projected finish2nd of 12
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength88%
ExpectedActualTrend
91%1-669/100
6
Value
OR 86
5/1
Junior Des Mottes silks

Mr A Kerr Mr L Kerr

7yo Gelding · 11-5

Castle Du Berlais - Sauves La Reine (Passing Sale)

D R Fox40%L Kerr60%Synergy 33
3P1132
8.0
Going 0Course 0
Cheek pieces

Proved a different proposition in refitted cheekpieces when landing back-to-back handicaps at Fakenham/Plumpton in February. Ended time with Nick Scholfield with a solid second at Fontwell (2¾m, soft) in March but let go for only £2000 thereafter.

Class Advantage

27/02 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a27/0222/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above22/05 · mark par13/02 · C5 · finish vs mark above13/02 · mark par23/02 · C5 · finish vs mark above23/02 · mark par4/03 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/03 · mark par14/03 · C5 · finish vs mark above14/03 · mark par14/03projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength36%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going · 0Course · 0Dist: 3m 70y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 10 · SP 250/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 250/1 | Actual: 18%27/02Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 100%13/02Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 100%Pos 3 · SP 5/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 3 · SP 5/6 | Actual: 71%4/03Pos 2 · SP 8/11 | Expected: 96%Pos 2 · SP 8/11 | Actual: 75%14/03
Projected finish3rd of 12
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength75%
ExpectedActualTrend
82%1-858/100
8
OR 83
10/1
Coventry silks

D A Harrison Racing

9yo Gelding · 11-2

Galileo - Moonstone (Dalakhani)

Peter Kavanagh10%1/12Miss L HarrisonSynergy 16
736717
5.0Class ↓5
Going 0Course 78

Belatedly capitalised on falling mark following 9 months off/breathing operation when landing 12-runner handicap at Perth (2½m) in September. Not in same form when seventh at Carlisle 9 days ago but suspicion the return to 3m will suit and better showing certainly not ruled out.

Class Advantage

21/10 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below21/10 · mark par21/101/12 · C5 · finish vs mark above1/12 · mark par10/12 · C5 · finish vs mark below10/12 · mark par31/12 · C5 · finish vs mark below31/12 · mark par24/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above24/09 · mark par22/10 · C5 · finish vs mark below22/10 · mark par22/10projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength32%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going · 0Course · 78Dist: 3m 70y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 7 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 14%21/10Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 78%Pos 6 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 6 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 38%10/12Pos 7 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 1 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 1 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 100%24/09Pos 7 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 7 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 50%22/10
Projected finish4th of 12
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength94%
ExpectedActualTrend
73%1-952/100
3
OR 94
10/1
Better Be Definite silks

Ken McGarrity,hannigan,walker,c&Dwheel

8yo Gelding · 11-13

Clovis Du Berlais - Definitely Better (Definite Article)

Bruce Lynn10%3/9N W Alexander60%Synergy 11
10441P
7.0
Going 0Course 83

Looked better than ever when adding a second C&D success to his tally on testing ground in February. Ran no sort of race back on a sounder surface when pulled up at Newcastle (3m) a month later and market best guide now making seasonal bow.

Class Advantage

4/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/05 · mark par4/0521/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above21/05 · mark par23/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below23/06 · mark par8/11 · C5 · finish vs mark below8/11 · mark par13/01 · C5 · finish vs mark below13/01 · mark par10/02 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above10/02 · mark par10/02projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength41%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going · 0Course · 83Dist: 3m 70y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 93%4/05Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 100%Pos 10 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 10 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 31%23/06Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 63%Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 67%13/01Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 100%10/02
Projected finish5th of 12
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength58%
ExpectedActualTrend
64%1-1045/100
5
OR 87
4/1
Ck O'mara silks

Mr John Murphy

5yo Gelding · 11-6

Shirocco - Siwaara (Peintre Celebre)

Ben Smith10%1/4−7lbR M SmithSynergy 20
954164
6.0
Going 0Course 60

Was well backed and left previous efforts behind when making second handicap start a winning one over C&D in March. Below that level next time but back on track when fourth at Perth (3m) in April. Remains unexposed as a stayer and there could well be more to come this season.

Class Advantage

1/12 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a1/1213/01 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a10/02 · C5 · finish vs mark below10/02 · mark par7/03 · C5 · finish vs mark above7/03 · mark par27/03 · C5 · finish vs mark below27/03 · mark par22/04 · C5 · finish vs mark below22/04 · mark par22/04projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength41%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going · 0Course · 60Dist: 3m 70y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 300/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 300/1 | Actual: 20%1/12Pos 5 · SP 500/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 500/1 | Actual: 56%Pos 4 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 63%10/02Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 100%Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 64%27/03Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 67%22/04
Projected finish6th of 12
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength83%
ExpectedActualTrend
55%1-762/100
7
OR 85
14/1
Melbourne Ghost silks

Mousetrap Racing

5yo Gelding · 11-4

Ocovango - Tagalong (Brian Boru)

Craig Nichol10%0/2D W WhillansSynergy 36
7057
3.0
Going 0Course 14

Maiden pointer who didn't offer much in a bumper and 3 hurdles under Rules during second half of last season. However, no surprise to see him take a market step back up in trip now handicapping on return and that can see him in a better light. Worth noting for market support.

Class Advantage

13/01 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a13/0121/02 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a21/0221/03 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a21/0320/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a20/04projClass-projected finish: 10th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength40%
Finish Dot = grade
Going · 0Course · 14

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 7 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 14%13/01Pos 12 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 0%21/02Pos 5 · SP 150/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 150/1 | Actual: 33%21/03Pos 7 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 25%20/04
Projected finish7th of 12
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength85%
ExpectedActualTrend
45%1-567/100
2
OR 94
14/1
Secret Secret silks

The Secrets

10yo Gelding · 11-13

Born To Sea - Maughami (Manduro)

Leah Noreci30%0/1−7lbJames MoffattSynergy 23
453536
4.0
Going 0Course 0
Tongue strap

Cartmel regular, adding to his haul in July 2025. Rather in-and-out since and he was below form having gone with plenty of exuberance in front when sixth at Perth (3m) on his most recent outing 37 days ago. Others rate stronger.

Class Advantage

27/05 · C5 · finish vs mark below27/05 · mark par27/0528/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below28/06 · mark par20/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below20/07 · mark par29/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below29/08 · mark par31/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below31/08 · mark par24/09 · C5 · finish vs mark below24/09 · mark par24/09projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength65%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going · 0Course · 0Dist: 3m 70y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 67%27/05Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 60%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 75%20/07Pos 5 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 5 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 64%Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 71%31/08Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 38%24/09
Projected finish8th of 12
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength35%
ExpectedActualTrend
36%5-1164/100
10
OR 73
12/1
Reagrove Lord silks

Southdean Racing Club

8yo Gelding · 10-6

Malinas - Ballerina Queen (Be My Native)

Jonathon Bewley10%0/1G Bewley70%Synergy 19
289944
4.0
Going 0Course 83
Tongue strap1st Visor +2

Shaped as if retaining ability after 13 months off when fourth of 11 in handicap hurdle at Hexham (23f) in May. Failed to build on that at Perth a month later and others boast more persuasive claims having been absent since.

Class Advantage

6/01 · C5 · finish vs mark above6/01 · mark par6/0128/01 · C5 · finish vs mark below28/01 · mark par13/03 · C5 · finish vs mark below13/03 · mark par14/04 · C5 · finish vs mark below14/04 · mark par19/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above19/05 · mark par7/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above7/06 · mark par7/06projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength9%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going · 0Course · 83Dist: 3m 70y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 83%6/01Pos 8 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 8 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 30%Pos 9 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 9 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 43%13/03Pos 9 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 9 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 27%Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 70%19/05Pos 4 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 75%7/06
Projected finish9th of 12
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength78%
ExpectedActualTrend
27%1-858/100
9
OR 81
25/1
Anamanda silks

Turcan, Tulloch, Robertson, Walker

7yo Mare · 11-0

Reliable Man - Anyana (Nathaniel)

Dominic Hislop10%0/1−7lbN W Alexander60%Synergy 29
655420
4.0
Going 0Course 0

A 3-time winner on the Flat in France and whilst yet to taste success over hurdles, she ran well in a refitted hood when second at Musselburgh (3m) in March. Probably needed first start for 6 months at Perth in September and she's not one to write off from this much-reduced mark.

Class Advantage

25/10 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below25/10 · mark par25/108/12 · C5 · finish vs mark below8/12 · mark par23/01 · C5 · finish vs mark below23/01 · mark par15/02 · C5 · finish vs mark above15/02 · mark par20/03 · C5 · finish vs mark above20/03 · mark par23/09 · C5 · finish vs mark below23/09 · mark par23/09projClass-projected finish: 9th of 12
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength36%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going · 0Course · 0Dist: 3m 70y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 6 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 29%25/10Pos 5 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 5 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 20%Pos 5 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 60%23/01Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 63%Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 80%20/03Pos 10 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 10 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 18%23/09
Projected finish10th of 12
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
18%6-1264/100
11
OR 71
50/1
Bray Dale silks

Bissett Racing

9yo Gelding · 10-4

Scorpion - Cherry West (Westerner)

P W Wadge10%C Bissett60%Synergy 27
05P8P5
3.0
Going 0Course 26
Cheek pieces

Well beaten in a Hexham seller on his latest start in May and seemingly retains little ability. Goes back up significantly in trip with cheekpieces refitted.

Class Advantage

14/02 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a14/027/03 · C5 · finish vs mark above7/03 · mark par12/11 · C5 · finish vs mark below12/11 · mark par1/12 · C5 · finish vs mark below1/12 · mark par10/02 · C5 · finish vs mark below10/02 · mark par2/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above2/05 · mark par2/05projClass-projected finish: 11th of 12
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength15%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going · 0Course · 26

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 250/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 250/1 | Actual: 33%14/02Pos 3 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 78%Pos 10 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 31%12/11Pos 5 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 5 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 8 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 13%10/02Pos 5 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 20%2/05
Projected finish11th of 12
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength35%
ExpectedActualTrend
9%5-1164/100
12
OR 67
66/1
Run Baby Run silks

Mr R Michael Smith

5yo Gelding · 10-2

Mahler - Duffys Grange (Daylami)

Toby Wynne10%R M Smith60%Synergy 32
PP8078
2.0
Going 0Course 0
Cheek pieces

No form, with his jumping often suspect in novice/maiden company last season. Market step forward required now handicapping over this longer trip on return.

Class Advantage

29/01 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a29/0115/02 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a15/027/03 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above7/03 · mark par7/0322/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above22/04 · mark par22/04projClass-projected finish: 12th of 12
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼1
Strength45%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going · 0Course · 0

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 300/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 300/1 | Actual: 0%29/01Pos 10 · SP 250/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 250/1 | Actual: 10%15/02Pos 7 · SP 400/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 400/1 | Actual: 0%7/03Pos 8 · SP 300/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 300/1 | Actual: 0%22/04
Projected finish12th of 12
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
0%11-1278/100