2
Castelin
4yo Gelding · 11-0
Angers · Prix Andre Adele Hurdle · 2m 198y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
85%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 1.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Lyon-Parilly | T Chevillard | 2 | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-10 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | T Chevillard | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Angers | T Chevillard | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-02-03 | Pau | T Chevillard | 3 | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 8-8 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength22%
Delivery trend -42.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 10/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |