1
Chateau Esquiule
4yo Gelding · 11-2
Angers · Prix Andre Adele Hurdle · 2m 198y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | Auteuil | Tho Journiac | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Dieppe | T Dumouch | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Dieppe | T Beaurain | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-30 | Dieppe | T Beaurain | 4 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-03-29 | Fontainebleau | T Beaurain | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Pau | J B Eyquem | 3 | 12th | 13th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength91%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/12/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 02/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 93% | +0.30 |
| 20/01/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 08/02/2026 | 12th | 14/1 | 26% | 27% | +0.00 |
| 29/03/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 82% | +0.24 |
| 30/04/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 01/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |
| 10/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 54% | +0.28 |
| 06/10/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |