1
Lock Heart
3yo Gelding · 10-7
Angers · Prix Point Bleu Hurdle · 2m 198y
#11
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 10.6 /10 (raw 9.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Saint-Cloud | S Pasquier | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-03-24 | Saint-Cloud | Eddy Hardouin | ? | 13th | 15th | −2 |
| 2026-03-06 | Fontainebleau | C Lecoeuvre | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2025-11-09 | Saint-Cloud | J Moutard | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 8-12 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -18.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/2025 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 06/03/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |
| 24/03/2026 | 13th | 33/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 01/05/2026 | 14th | 16/1 | 16% | 7% | -0.09 |