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4

Le Troca

2yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 8

Angers · Prix Tello Maiden Stakes · 1m 1f 207y

#3

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

28%

Place Prob

26%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 6.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Chantilly 14/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 7f209y GS 11814/09C5C8 @ Chantilly 23/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 7f209y Gd 12823/09C8C5 @ Chantilly 29/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR - · 1m208y Std 12829/09C5C5 @ Saint-Cloud 08/10/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 1278/10C5projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 2
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-08Saint-CloudC Collet-Vidal?4th4th0
2026-09-29ChantillyC Collet-Vidal?10th10th0
2026-09-23ChantillyC Collet-Vidal?6th10th−4
2026-09-14ChantillyC Collet-Vidal?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0923/0929/098/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 77/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +16.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/09/20267th66/10%0%0.00
23/09/20266th80/10%17%+0.17
29/09/202610th100/10%10%+0.10
08/10/20264th22/10%57%+0.57