4
Chester Light
2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 2
Angers · Prix La Koumia Maiden Stakes · 1m 1f 207y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
92%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Compiegne | T Piccone | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | Lyon-Parilly | T Piccone | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Clairefontaine | M Protti | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-13 · tight 21/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength9%
Delivery trend -40.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 89% | +0.84 |
| 15/09/2026 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 70% | -0.23 |
| 09/10/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |