2
El Caney
8yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 8
Angers · Handicap De La Maine Handicap · 2m 3f 194y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 8.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.1
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Deauville | L Poggionovo | 4 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-09-20 | Fontainebleau | L Poggionovo | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-08-25 | Deauville | L Boisseau | 2 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Vichy | Coralie Pacaut | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Saint-Cloud | K Braye | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | ParisLongchamp | Coralie Pacaut | 2 | 16th | 15th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 47/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength75%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/05/2026 | 14th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 15/05/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 31/05/2026 | 15th | 66/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 15/06/2026 | 16th | 125/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 25/08/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 20/09/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 05/10/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |