6
Kenchak
4yo Gelding · 9-1 · Draw 1
Angers · Handicap De La Maine Handicap · 2m 3f 194y
#9
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | ParisLongchamp | A Crastus | 3 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | ParisLongchamp | A Crastus | 2 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2026-01-31 | Chantilly | A Crastus | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Deauville | Aurelien Lemaitre | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-18 | Chantilly | Aurelien Lemaitre | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Clairefontaine | A Pouchin | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 3-11 · tight 47/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength40%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 15/08/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 87% | +0.87 |
| 02/09/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 21/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |
| 18/11/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 13/12/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 31/01/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 12/04/2026 | 14th | 20/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 21/05/2026 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |