5
La Guerche
5yo Filly · 9-3 · Draw 2
Angers · Handicap De La Maine Handicap · 2m 3f 194y
#11
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | J Guillochon | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-10-02 | Saint-Cloud | M Guyon | 3 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Nantes | J Guillochon | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Le Lion D'angers | J Guillochon | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | ParisLongchamp | Aurelien Lemaitre | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Nantes | J Guillochon | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 11-11 · tight 90/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/2025 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 79% | +0.36 |
| 18/02/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 82% | +0.13 |
| 31/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 90% | +0.04 |
| 23/04/2026 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 07/05/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 77% | +0.19 |
| 29/05/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 02/10/2026 | 14th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.13 |
| 20/10/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 31% | -0.17 |