16
Ange Noir Pelem
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 12
Angers · Prix Rabelais Handicap · 1m 3f 95y
#16
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.6 /10 (raw 8.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | Argentan | A Molins | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Compiegne | H Boutin | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-02-24 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | A Molins | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | A Molins | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-11-28 | Deauville | H Journiac | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Le Croise-Laroche | H Journiac | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1633% of fieldRange 1-13 · tight 45/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength67%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09/2025 | 14th | 18/1 | 5% | 13% | +0.08 |
| 17/10/2025 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/11/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 15/11/2025 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 28/11/2025 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/02/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 24/02/2026 | 11th | 80/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 27/03/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 09/04/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |