13
Bella Ciao
6yo Mare · 8-13 · Draw 13
Angers · Prix Rabelais Handicap · 1m 3f 95y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Chantilly | L Poggionovo | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-22 | Vichy | L Poggionovo | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | Craon | L Brechet | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Deauville | J Majorcryk | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Deauville | L Brechet | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Deauville | M Guyon | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1693% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 75/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength96%
Delivery trend +4.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06/2026 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 02/07/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 93% | +0.41 |
| 06/08/2026 | 7th | 1/1 | 95% | 54% | -0.41 |
| 11/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 25/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 82% | +0.03 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 22/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 85% | +0.14 |
| 07/10/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.47 |