14
Happy Chrisnat
9yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 14
Angers · Prix Rabelais Handicap · 1m 3f 95y
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Les Sables | D Provost | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Evreux | C Grosbois | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Le Croise-Laroche | L Grosso | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Senonnes-Pouance | A Molins | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Craon | A Molins | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Fontainebleau | M Velon | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1653% of fieldRange 16-16 · tight 90/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/2025 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 47% | +0.41 |
| 21/10/2025 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 12/11/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 92% | +0.66 |
| 22/11/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 30/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 92% | +0.05 |
| 13/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 93% | +0.20 |
| 20/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 92% | +0.09 |
| 15/04/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 38% | -0.35 |
| 22/10/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 53% | -0.05 |