3
Ildouce Flechois
8yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 10
Angers · Prix Rabelais Handicap · 1m 3f 95y
#14
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.9 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | Les Sables | C Grosbois | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Deauville | T Piccone | 3 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Angers | L Roussel | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Nantes | L Poggionovo | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | L Poggionovo | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Nancy | L Poggionovo | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 160% of fieldRange 13-16 · tight 82/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.7% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 16th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/12/2025 | 14th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 10/02/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 04/03/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 27/04/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 11/05/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 08/06/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 04/07/2026 | 13th | 33/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 13/10/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |