Karioitahi
9yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 6
Angers · Prix Ecouflant Handicap · 1m 3f 95y
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 7.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Saint-Cloud | L Brechet | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-09-07 | Saint-Cloud | L Brechet | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Deauville | L Brechet | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Clairefontaine | Mr Giacomo Perugini | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Saint-Cloud | J Claudic | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-04 | ParisLongchamp | Mrs Earine Dubourg | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 17/04/2026 | 14th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 07/05/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 04/06/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 28/06/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 16/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 07/09/2026 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 38% | -0.38 |
| 25/09/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |