12
Nath Show
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 15
Angers · Prix Ecouflant Handicap · 1m 3f 95y
#10
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 9.3 /10 (raw 7.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Chateaubriant | A Bernard | 4 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2025-12-29 | Deauville | H Lebouc | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-19 | Pornichet | L Rousseau | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Pornichet | L Roussel | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-11-10 | Amiens | A Vilchien | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-10-29 | Amiens | A Vilchien | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1536% of fieldRange 6-15 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength24%
Delivery trend +3.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/2025 | 12th | 11/2 | 71% | 15% | -0.56 |
| 06/08/2025 | 16th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/10/2025 | 15th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/10/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 10/11/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/11/2025 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 19/12/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 29/12/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 21/07/2026 | 15th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |