3
Um Elnadim
9yo Mare · 9-4 · Draw 10
Angers · Prix Ecouflant Handicap · 1m 3f 95y
#8
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Dieppe | A Bernard | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Le Lion D'angers | Mrs Earine Dubourg | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Le Lion D'angers | A Bernard | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Chateaubriant | A Bernard | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Nantes | A Bernard | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Argentan | A Bernard | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1564% of fieldRange 2-10 · tight 62/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength65%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/04/2026 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 31% | +0.26 |
| 24/04/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 24/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 10/06/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 42% | +0.36 |
| 01/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 21/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 69% | +0.43 |
| 02/08/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 20/08/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 09/09/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |