4
In Love With Puch
8yo Gelding · 8-13
Argentan · Prix Sancho Panca - Monte · 1m 6f 64y
#4
Rank
Odds
45/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 7
Recent avg: C7.0
Today: 6
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Enghien | E Nicolaysen | 7 | −1 | ||
| 2025-12-05 | Saint Brieuc | E Nicolaysen | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-08-28 | Pornichet | A Collette | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-07-06 | Laval | Mlle A Hallais | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2024-11-04 | Chartres | G Houel | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-09-13 | Chartres | E Nicolaysen | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1756% of fieldRange 6-17 · tight 54/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength31%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/2023 | 12th | 10/1 | 47% | 27% | -0.21 |
| 06/09/2023 | 16th | 14/1 | 26% | 12% | -0.15 |
| 30/04/2024 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 16/06/2024 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 93% | +0.56 |
| 15/08/2024 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 13/09/2024 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 04/11/2024 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 93% | +0.35 |
| 06/07/2025 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 27% | -0.15 |
| 28/08/2025 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |