9
Mango Paulo
4yo Gelding · 9-13
Argentan · Prix Custom - Monte · 1m 6f 64y
#5
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼3
Strength87%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +3.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Graignes | J B Lelievre | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Enghien | A Collette | 3 | 11th | 7th | +3 |
| 2026-06-03 | Laval | A Andre | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Toulouse | A Andre | 3 | 4th | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-02-14 | Agen | A Collette | 2 | 1st | -4th | +4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Vincennes | R Lamy | 4 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1586% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 62/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength92%
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12/2025 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 46% | +0.41 |
| 26/12/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 05/01/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |
| 31/01/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 14/02/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 03/04/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 03/06/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 26/06/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 23% | +0.18 |
| 12/10/2026 | 3rd | 66/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |