14

Mauricio Du Derby

4yo Gelding · 9-2

Argentan · Prix Custom - Monte · 1m 6f 64y

#8

Rank

Odds

60/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼2
Strength49%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Vincennes 31/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR - · 1m5f92y Std 13231/10C?C0 @ Vincennes 27/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 1m5f92y Std 132C0 @ Enghien 24/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 1m6f64y Std 13924/03C?C0 @ Vincennes 07/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 1m2f205y Std 139C0 @ Vincennes 21/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 1m5f92y Std 13921/04C?6 @ Lisieux 02/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 1m5f120y Std 1233 @ Enghien 18/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR - · 1m3f40y Std 139 · HIGHER CLASS18/073C0 @ Enghien 26/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 1m3f40y Std 1363 @ Vincennes 18/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 1m5f92y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS18/093projClass-projected finish: 9th of 15
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18VincennesMlle A Gervais37th3rd+3
2026-08-08EnghienM Lelievre4+2
2026-07-26EnghienMme L Fauchon?6th6th0
2026-07-18EnghienTh Dromigny36th2nd+3
2026-07-02LisieuxMme Lea Le Guerch610th10th0
2026-04-21VincennesE De Jesus?10th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/107/0418/0718/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1564% of fieldRange 3-13 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength51%

Delivery trend +1.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/10/20259th66/10%33%+0.33
27/11/20258th50/10%30%+0.30
24/03/20267th33/10%33%+0.33
07/04/20261st40/10%100%+1.00
21/04/202610th33/10%0%0.00
02/07/202610th50/10%18%+0.18
18/07/20266th80/10%58%+0.58
26/07/20266th50/10%55%+0.55
18/09/20267th50/10%50%+0.50