15
Mazeppa Du Vivier
4yo Gelding · 9-13
Argentan · Prix Custom - Monte · 1m 6f 64y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
25%
Place Prob
33%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Cabourg | A Lamy | 5 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Saint-Malo | Guillaume Martin | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Lisieux | A Lamy | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-13 | Argentan | Y Lebourgeois | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-16 | Caen | Y Lebourgeois | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-12 | Cabourg | Y Lebourgeois | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1593% of fieldRange 2-5 · tight 81/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength84%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 08/06/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 25/07/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 89% | +0.03 |
| 12/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |
| 16/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 85% | -0.11 |
| 13/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 94% | +0.13 |
| 02/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 73% | -0.04 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 91% | +0.04 |
| 14/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |