4
Meneuse De Houelle
4yo Filly · 8-11
Argentan · Prix Custom - Monte · 1m 6f 64y
#11
Rank
Odds
35/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Cabourg | D Thomain | 5 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-09-06 | Vire | Th Roussin | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Cabourg | A Rebeche | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Cabourg | A G Maillard | 5 | +1 | ||
| 2026-06-10 | Caen | R Lamy | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Caen | A G Maillard | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1536% of fieldRange 5-15 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength24%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 69% | +0.14 |
| 05/03/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |
| 23/04/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 18/05/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 27/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 87% | +0.87 |
| 10/06/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 14/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 45% | +0.19 |
| 06/09/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 03/10/2026 | 13th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |