5
Mozar De Reve D'or
4yo Gelding · 9-13
Argentan · Prix Custom - Monte · 1m 6f 64y
#4
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼2
Strength41%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Cabourg | V Saussaye | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-09-28 | Craon | Th Lamare | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-01-06 | Vincennes | S Pasquier | 4 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-11-12 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | M Abrivard | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Reims | P Y Verva | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-06 | Saint-Malo | G Gelormini | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1550% of fieldRange 14-15 · tight 84/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03/2025 | 3rd | 4/9 | 98% | 80% | -0.18 |
| 12/06/2025 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 14/09/2025 | 3rd | 4/7 | 97% | 75% | -0.22 |
| 12/11/2025 | 11th | 11/8 | 93% | 33% | -0.59 |
| 06/01/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 24/10/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 73% | -0.00 |