4
Nice Boy Bourbon
3yo Colt · 0-0
Argentan · Prix Remi Serais Immobilier - Attele · 1m 6f 64y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 1.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Toulouse | H Monthule | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-10-11 | Toulouse | H Monthule | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Vichy | H Monthule | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-18 | Enghien | H Monthule | 3 | −2 | ||
| 2026-04-09 | Meslay Du Maine | H Monthule | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-03-25 | Caen | H Monthule | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1586% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 63/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength84%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 09/04/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 11/10/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 21/10/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 90% | +0.04 |