1
L'etincelle
5yo Filly · 0-0
Argentan · Prix Xavier Cavey - Attele · 1m 6f 64y
#6
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲4
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -4.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Argentan | S Hardy | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Divonne Les Bains | S Hardy | 2 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Le Mans | B Hardy | 6 | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-07-04 | Vichy | S Hardy | 6 | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-05-16 | Caen | L Legrand | 6 | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2025-08-27 | Les Sables | B Hardy | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1750% of fieldRange 6-16 · tight 58/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength36%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/05/2025 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 28/05/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 05/06/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 27/08/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 92% | +0.45 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 23/09/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 76% | +0.76 |