17
Le Graal
5yo Gelding · 0-0
Argentan · Prix Xavier Cavey - Attele · 1m 6f 64y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Enghien | B Rochard | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | Vincennes | Cl Duvaldestin | 2 | −1 | ||
| 2026-07-01 | Enghien | Cl Duvaldestin | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Enghien | Theo Duvaldestin | 2 | −1 | ||
| 2026-05-29 | Vincennes | Theo Duvaldestin | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Vincennes | Theo Duvaldestin | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 17100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 82/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2024 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 07/09/2024 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 92% | +0.11 |
| 13/10/2024 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 30% | -0.23 |
| 04/01/2026 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 19/03/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 30/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 28/09/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |