10
Leonardo Du Derby
5yo Colt · 0-0
Argentan · Prix Xavier Cavey - Attele · 1m 6f 64y
#15
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | Caen | D Locqueneux | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Enghien | B Rochard | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Cabourg | B Rochard | 4 | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-06-27 | Enghien | D Locqueneux | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Chateaubriant | E Raffin | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Vincennes | P ph Ploquin | 4 | 4th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1731% of fieldRange 3-17 · tight 38/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength39%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2025 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 86% | +0.30 |
| 12/12/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 90% | +0.53 |
| 11/01/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 30% | -0.31 |
| 20/03/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 22/04/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 92% | +0.34 |
| 27/06/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 17/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 85% | -0.02 |
| 12/08/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 62% | -0.04 |
| 18/10/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 88% | +0.35 |