16
Loving Dream
5yo Gelding · 0-0
Argentan · Prix Xavier Cavey - Attele · 1m 6f 64y
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
84%
Place Prob
57%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Argentan | L M David | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Enghien | L M David | 2 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Enghien | L M David | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Enghien | L M David | 2 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Chateaubriant | L M David | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Lyon-Parilly | L M David | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1794% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 58/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength73%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 19/10/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 07/12/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 31/03/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 22/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 85% | +0.11 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 01/07/2026 | 12th | 22/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 23/09/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |