15
Lucas
5yo Gelding · 0-0
Argentan · Prix Xavier Cavey - Attele · 1m 6f 64y
#16
Rank
Odds
80/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | Vincennes | A Rebeche | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-10-02 | Vincennes | A Collette | 2 | −1 | ||
| 2026-09-23 | Argentan | A Rebeche | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-09 | Vincennes | A Rebeche | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-22 | Chateaubriant | A Rebeche | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-12-27 | Vincennes | A Rebeche | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 176% of fieldRange 5-17 · tight 49/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength34%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 16th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/12/2024 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 05/01/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 01/02/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 03/05/2025 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 16/05/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 10/06/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 03/10/2025 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 21/10/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 13/10/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |