12
Homard Land
9yo Gelding · 0-0
Argentan · Prix Paul Buquet - Attele · 1m 6f 64y
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Vincennes | D Thomain | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | Vincennes | E Raffin | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-05 | Saint-Malo | F Nivard | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Enghien | E Raffin | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Vincennes | E Raffin | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Vincennes | E Raffin | 3 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1894% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 80/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/12/2025 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 92% | +0.37 |
| 24/01/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 27/03/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 21/06/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 58% | -0.23 |
| 22/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 05/08/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 12/09/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/09/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |