2
Fidendum
7yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 118
Ascot · Grundon Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 3f 63y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.4 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Perth | Nick Slatter | 2 | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-07-05 | Market Rasen | Nick Slatter | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Worcester | Nick Slatter | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Market Rasen | Nick Slatter | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Hereford | Nick Slatter | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2025-03-04 | Market Rasen | Kielan Woods | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 70/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/2024 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 27/08/2024 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 07/09/2024 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 25% | -0.17 |
| 24/09/2024 | 3rd | 80/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 04/03/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 16/5 | 83% | 100% | +0.17 |
| 28/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 05/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 86% | +0.44 |