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Handmedownastar

6yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 120

Ascot · Grundon Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 3f 63y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

89%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Good-looking point winner. Needed his stable debut at Cartmel before capitalising on a good opportunity in match race at Kelso (21f). Beaten by more than the rise in class when pulled-up in Grade 2 Persian War since. Cheekpieces on for second handicap start and his revised mark looks harsh.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 2.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Fontwell 14/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 2m1f162y Sft 15914/0344 @ Newton Abbot 04/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 2m2f110y Goo 1604/0444 @ Fontwell 24/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 110 · 2m3f29y Goo 157 · beat its mark24/05/2026 · OR 110 par24/054OR 1104 @ Cartmel 31/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 115 · 2m6f31y Goo 168 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 115 par31/084OR 1154 @ Kelso 16/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 2 · OR 114 · 2m4f189y Goo 161 · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 114 par16/094OR 114projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-09ChepstowS Bowen1+3
2026-09-16KelsoS Bowen41st1st0
2026-08-31CartmelS Bowen45th5th0
2026-05-24FontwellHarry Cobden41st1st0
2026-04-04Newton AbbotDaniel Sansom42nd2nd0
2026-03-14FontwellCallum Pritchard43rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/034/0424/0531/0816/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 27/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength54%

Delivery trend -10.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/03/20263rd5/174%80%+0.06
04/04/20262nd14/126%90%+0.64
24/05/20261st5/696%100%+0.04
31/08/20265th6/492%43%-0.49
16/09/20261st7/491%100%+0.09