5
Lord Chamberlain
5yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 110
Ascot · Grundon Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 3f 63y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Worcester | R T Dunne | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Market Rasen | R T Dunne | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Market Rasen | Toby McCain-Mitchell | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-06 | Hereford | R T Dunne | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-11 | Huntingdon | R T Dunne | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-26 | Ludlow | Kielan Woods | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 29/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength51%
Delivery trend -3.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2024 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 29/07/2024 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 25% | -0.64 |
| 29/01/2026 | 11th | 150/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 26/02/2026 | 3rd | 66/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 11/03/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 06/04/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 14/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 28/05/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 01/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |