IvyArcIvyArc
7

Media Mogul

5yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 108

Ascot · Grundon Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 3f 63y

#3

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly useful Flat performer. Off the mark over hurdles in 2m Worcester maiden. Shaped as if on a good mark despite doing plenty wrong in both handicap starts there since (quirky/not a fluent jumper). Form of latest second working out well, though, and can go one better if putting it all together.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Salisbury 15/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 71 · 1m6f44y GF 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/05/2025 · OR 71 par15/053OR 714 @ Goodwood 13/06/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 71 · 1m6f Goo 128 · below its mark13/06/2025 · OR 71 par5 @ Salisbury 23/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 70 · 1m6f44y Goo 142 · beat its mark23/07/2025 · OR 70 par23/075OR 705 @ Yarmouth 15/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 74 · 1m3f104y GF 142 · beat its mark15/08/2025 · OR 74 par4 @ Huntingdon 02/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR - · 1m7f171y Gd 1582/1144 @ Southwell 25/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 1m7f182y GS 1584 @ Worcester 17/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 98 · 2m Gd 158 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 98 par17/064OR 984 @ Worcester 22/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 105 · 2m Gd 163 · below its mark22/07/2026 · OR 105 par2 @ Worcester 25/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 105 · 2m4f Gd 149 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/09/2026 · OR 105 par25/092OR 105projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-25WorcesterDavid Bass22nd0th+2
2026-07-22WorcesterDavid Bass43rd3rd0
2026-06-17WorcesterDavid Bass41st1st0
2025-11-25SouthwellDavid Bass44th4th0
2025-11-02HuntingdonDavid Bass44th4th0
2025-08-15YarmouthGeorge Downing54th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0515/0817/0625/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 76/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/05/20253rd13/891%50%-0.41
13/06/202511th9/153%0%-0.53
23/07/20252nd12/137%88%+0.51
15/08/20254th9/488%50%-0.38
02/11/20254th16/116%75%+0.59
25/11/20254th9/276%70%-0.06
17/06/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
22/07/20263rd85/4089%67%-0.22
25/09/20262nd14/126%93%+0.67