8
Mr Rafiki
5yo Gelding · 10-13 · OR 105
Ascot · Grundon Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 3f 63y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Stratford | Jonjo O'Neill Jr. | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-10-05 | Stratford | Jonjo O'Neill Jr. | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-09-15 | Uttoxeter | R P McLernon | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-16 | Worcester | Jonjo O'Neill Jr. | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Stratford | Jonjo O'Neill Jr. | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Warwick | K Brogan | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength99%
Delivery trend +8.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 12/04/2026 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 20/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 30/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 16/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 17/10/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |